[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices rose slightly on June 27, with uncertainty remaining over the US Fed's interest rate cut in July

SMM Nickel News on June 27:

Macro News:

(1) Middle East Situation - ① Iranian Foreign Minister: Currently, Iran has no plans to restart nuclear negotiations. ③ Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei appeared for the first time after the ceasefire, stating that the US attack on nuclear facilities had "little effect" and that Trump was putting on a show. ④ CNN: The US plans to discuss easing sanctions on Iran to bring it back to nuclear negotiations.

(2) US Fed - ① Barkin: The estimated neutral interest rate may rise slowly over time; tariffs will start to push up inflation. ② Goolsbee: If inflation remains within the 2% range and uncertainties are resolved, the US Fed will embark on a path of interest rate cuts; Trump's premature announcement of Powell's successor will have no impact on the FOMC. ③ Daly: An interest rate cut in the fall looks promising. ④ Collins: An interest rate cut in July may be premature.

Spot Market:

Today, the SMM 1# refined nickel price is 120,900-123,700 yuan/mt, with an average price of 122,300 yuan/mt, up 650 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premiums quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel is 2,700-2,900 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,800 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premiums and discounts quotation range for electrodeposited nickel from mainstream domestic brands is 0-400 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2508) oscillated mainly above the 120,000 yuan/mt level today. As of the midday close, SHFE nickel was quoted at 120,660 yuan/mt, up 880 yuan/mt, with a gain of 0.73%.

Geopolitical risks have eased, and risk-averse sentiment has faded. Six departments, including the central bank, have jointly launched consumption stimulus measures to boost market confidence, and nickel prices have rebounded recently. In the medium and long-term, the surplus pattern of nickel is difficult to reverse, and the rebound space is expected to be limited.